sexta-feira, 11 de março de 2011

A Grécia ao fundo do túnel


Quem ainda não percebeu que a austeridade no contexto de uma recessão pode aumentar o défice público, e não diminui-lo, olhe para a Grécia. Como noticia o Jornal de Negócios, o défice Grego em finais de Fevereiro deste ano foi de 1.028 milhões de euros. No mesmo período do ano passado (antes da austeridade) era inferior (944 milhões). As receitas caíram 9% e as despesas aumentaram 3,3%.

Em 2010 a economia grega encolheu 4% sobre uma contracção de 2,3% em 2009. E nos dois primeiros meses deste ano tem continuado a recuar. As receitas fiscais diminuíram 9% e as despesas aumentaram 3%.

Como é possível um défice aumentar com tanta austeridade? É simples: uma economia nacional não é a economia de uma família. Uma família que chega ao fim do mês com mais despesas que receitas pode reduzir o défice cortando as despesas (se não poder aumentar as receitas). Mas a redução das despesas de um estado (e o aumento das receitas com mais impostos) tem como efeito, em contexto de recessão, a contracção da procura, das vendas de bens e serviços, do emprego e do rendimento. A sua capacidade de cobrar impostos diminui e algumas despesas (nomeadamente prestações sociais) aumentam automaticamente.

Isto poderia não ser assim se as exportações aumentassem muito, ao mesmo tempo que diminuiam as importações. Mas numa Europa em que todos praticam a austeridade (inclusive os que dela não precisam) e que cresce pouco, as exportações não podem aumentar tanto quanto o necessário.

Faz de facto todo o sentido dizer que quando se quer reduzir o défice, nem sempre é uma boa ideia cortar o gasto público. Assim como me parece fazer sentido voltar a lembrar, em dia de PEC IV, que no fim do nosso túnel está a Grécia.

14 comentários:

good churrasco ó auto de café.... disse...

Castro Caldas o neurologista com
a crença na salvação dos livros dos sábios antepassados para as gerações futuras

ou outro Castro Caldas?

50 e tantos anos pelas referências aos túneis

e às luzes no fundo

descrição dos malefícios da contracção do dito cujo pelas harpias do PEC IV

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