quinta-feira, 31 de março de 2011

A cassete da Almirante Reis

Esta semana, a ideia zumbi da chamada consolidação orçamental expansionista foi mais uma vez enterrada com a revisão em baixa da previsão feita pelo Banco de Portugal (BdP). Graças à austeridade, teremos uma recessão de pelo menos -1,4% este ano e dezenas de milhares de novos desempregados. Correia de transmissão do neoliberalismo com escala europeia, o BdP diz que toda esta destruição é inevitável e terá mesmo de ser aprofundada. Agora vem propor, sempre alinhado com a direita, uma redução das contribuições patronais para a segurança social, compensada com um aumento do IVA. Reduzir salários directos e indirectos e aumentar as desigualdades são as obsessões de sempre do BdP. Só mais um esforço que ainda não somos o país desenvolvido mais desigual. Para o BdP, a competitividade é questão de custos salariais directos ou indirectos e nada mais. Uma forma de percepção selectiva que atrofia a imaginação política e a inovação empresarial. Será que desconhecem que no nosso país o peso do IVA nos impostos totais é dos mais elevados da UE? É claro que o BdP faz um ensaio tosco de economia política e propõe, tal como um certo partido da direita, para tentar compensar e disfarçar mais um projecto de regressão social, uma vaga "transferência monetária" dirigida, que nunca ocorrerá, claro. Aliás, há muito que o BdP declarou guerra ao projecto do Estado social universal. De resto, também como a direita, o BdP continuará a dizer que o desemprego é um problema de segurança social demasiado generosa e de regras laborais que ainda dão alguma liberdade aos trabalhadores, como se a enéssima recessão provocada pela austeridade permanente não fosse a principal causa do desemprego, como se a crise financeira mundial não tivesse implodido com os idealismos de mercado e gerado novas vagas de desemprego, como se o desastre da integração num euro disfuncional, sempre apoiado, não tivesse ocorrido. São infinitos os pretextos para baixar salários e deteriorar condições de trabalho, mas não há melhor do que o desemprego de massas causado pelas crises. É a economia política do desemprego. É a cassete da Almirante Reis.

75 comentários:

Nuno disse...

Excelente texto, embora me deixe desarmado: o ponto fraco de um zombie é a cabeça mas aparentemente todos os argumentos de base factual fazem ricochete ou parecem reforçar a determinação em nos consumir o miolo!

Anónimo disse...

Estas instituições e estes senhores vão ter muito que explicar quando o grosso da população se dispor a perceber o que de facto está em causa ou que implicações têm as politicas que esta gente defende. Isto é só mais uma imagem do país subdesenvolvido que somos.

Anónimo disse...

Excelente!!! Para ajudar aa festa, aqui vai um bom artigo na VOXEU sobre a tal visao simplista da competitividade:

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6299

Joao Farinha

adão contreiras disse...

É por esta "teimosia" que eu digo que " o papel da violência na história tem ainda muitas pernas para andar"; primeiro esta violência sobre o grosso das pessoas e depois serão "as explicações que terão que dar".
Uma pessoa aí de Lisboa, novo ainda,há tempos dizia-me, "isto agora tem que ser com sangue", será pressentindo isso que o PR chamou a Belém o ministro da defesa? ou estou mal informado neste ponto?

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@Adão

Se houver sangue, é dentro de casa.

Culturalmente, a "panela de pressão" social estoura em Portugal, mas não extravasa para as ruas, subindo os suicídios, o alcoolismo, a violência doméstica, o abandono de crianças e idosos e os pequenos crimes.

Como disse o José Gil, este país não é pacifista, é "passivista".

João Pedro Santos disse...

Nunca acreditei na ideia de "consolidação orçamental expansionista"... e preocupam-me seriamente as consequências de um ajustamento baseado na austeridade, infelizmente (e julgo que não o negará) o ajustamento orçamental e do défice externo é imperioso e ainda não vi nenhuma proposta exequível que não envolvesse uma contracção (pelo menos em termos relativos) da procura interna. Neste cenário parece-me que pouco mais poderemos fazer do que discutir/negociar o ritmo (e gradualismo) do ajustamento e as medidas em concreto para atingir essa redução.

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Caro Joao Pedro Santos, o "ajustamento orçamental e do défice externo" nao sao imperiosos.

Primeiro, um das razoes para entrarmos na moeda uunica foi precisamente para nos livrarmos do problema de "convertibilidade" com que todos os paiises que nao emitem "reserve currency" se podem confrontar de vez em quando. Para noos dentro do euro, jaa nao haa crises de balanca de pagamentos. A existencia de um deeficit externo jaa nao coloca um problema de financiamento em moeda estrangeira per se, pode apenas ser sintoma de um problema mais profundo. Mas essa ee outra conversa, que ee boa de ter, mas nao tem que ver o este assunto.

Tambeem NAO ee imperioso ajustar o deeficit puublico. Quando nao haa crescimento da procura mundial, e o sector privado estaa a tentar fazer o seu "deleveraging", ou seja, a reparar os seus balancos, o deeficit puublico tem que aumentar, por definicao, por identidade contabiliistica macroeconoomica. Se isso nao acontece, torna-se mais difiicil ao sector privado reparar balancos e voltar a consumir e a investir (ou seja, a gastar).

Tentar reduzir o deeficit quando o sector privado nao estaa em condicoes para aumentar despesa, ou a economia mundial nao estaa a aumentar as nossas exportacoes, ee simplesmente desastroso, e contraprodutivo (ou seja, ee imposiivel fazer "consolidacao orcamental" quando os meus cortes de despesa resultam em reducao de impostos, porque a economia se ressentiu).

Quando Portugal entregou a poliitica monetaaria ao BCE, entregou muito mais que isso, entregou o papel de "lender of last resort" ou, por outras palavras, o de "ultimate supplier of outside liquidity". Mais, o que se aprendeu desde 2010 ee que de facto, a politiica fiscal expansionista na zona euro ee restringida quase imediatamente porque as condicoes monetaarias remam ao contraario (porque o BCE nao faz compras de diivida puublica como principal instrumento de controle de taxas de juro nos mercados monetaarios).

Assim ee muito difiicil fazer estabilizacao macroeconoomica com o orcamento, muito embora esse seja o remeedio para uma crise de procura agregada.

Quando Portugal garantiu em 2009 as diviidas dos bancos, transformou em pubblicas (impliicito nas garantias bancaarias anunciadas) responsabilidades financeiras privadas. Foi ai que os mercados ganharam apetite para ver se de facto o BCE usaria os poderes de lender-of-last-resort que os estados-membros lhe entregaram em 2000. Progressivamente descobriram que nao, que essa ferramenta parece estar perdida em Frankfurt, e tambeem descobriram que a narrativa europeia da austeridade nao permite ao BCE sequer pensar nisso. Soo mesmo quando forcado. Nem medos de contaagio teem servido para forcar o BCE a fazer algo.

Mas ainda haa alternativas a usar enquanto os tipos em Bruxelas, Berlin e Frankfurt se "organizam", e percebem o que devem fazer. A chave ee aguentar e "queimar" os especuladores. Uma dessas ee, por exemplo, chamar os principais bancos em Portugal e dizer-lhes que, em troca de aparecerem nos leiloes de diivida puublica com "boas" ofertas, o Tesouro Puublico passa a usar esses bancos para depoositos (com super-prioridade sobre accionistas e outros depositantes em caso de crise bancaaria) e transacooes. Isso foi feito por exemplo no Kazakhistao em 2009. Tal como em muitos paiises desenvolvidos, Portugal usa uma singre treasury account com o Banco de Portugal. O Banco de Portugal estaa proibido pelos tratados de deixar o Governo ter contas a descoberto (mas nao estaa proibido de vender metade das reservas de ouro e creditar o dinheiro na STA), mas o Governo pode aumentar temporariamente a base monetaaria com esta "targeted transition". A chave ee aguentar uns meses mais. O PEC ee uma treta, nao interessa nada.

Joao Farinha

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