sexta-feira, 1 de abril de 2011

Keynes tem as costas largas

Helena Garrido, sub-directora do Jornal de Negócios, afirmava ontem num vídeo do seu jornal: "O grande disparo do défice foi em 2009, quando houve adopção de medidas extraordinariamente expansionistas. Não nos podemos esquecer que, em 2009, foram adoptadas medidas como subsídios e apoios às empresas para combater a crise. Estávamos numa fase muito keynesiana de combate à crise". Hoje, Campos e Cunha, na sua crónica no Público, vai pelo mesmo diapasão: "Estamos a sofrer as consequências da dita política keynesiana de 2009 que teria permitido que a recessão fosse apenas de -2,6%".

Tenho muita pena, mas, mesmo já tendo passado um ano e qualquer coisa, ainda me lembro do que se passou em 2009. Lembro-me que o défice foi sobretudo causado por uma repentina retracção do produto, causado por quebras nas exportações e investimento. O défice disparou, não pela medidas extraordinárias de apoio à economia, mas sobretudo devido aos estabilizadores automáticos (nomeadamente quebra de receitas e aumento de despesas sociais). As medidas de estímulo económico tiveram um contributo muito modesto porque... eram muito modestas. Demasiado, aliás.

Nada como ver o relatório das contas do Estado para 2009, que nos diz: "O défice do subsector Estado em 2009 ascendeu a 14,1 mil milhões de euros, o que representa uma degradação de 8,9 mil milhões de euros relativamente a 2008, em resultado da quebra da receita efectiva em 6,1 mil milhões de euros e de um aumento da despesa em 2,8 mil milhões de euros."

Afinal, não foram tanto as despesas que dispararam. Foram sobretudo as receitas que afundaram. Ouvindo o que se diz na TV, parece mentira. Mas vamos às medidas "keynesianas". Segundo o mesmo relatório, foram gastos 824 milhões de euros nestas expansionistas medidas. Não chegam a 0,5% do PIB, num défice que aumentou 6,5% do PIB (números anteriores à revisão desta semana).

70 comentários:

  1. 1. Aurélio Fajardinho Diz:

    Abril 1, 2011 at 1:19 pm
    Islândia. O povo é quem mais ordena. E já tirou o país da recessão
    A crise levou os islandeses a mudar de governo e a chumbar o resgate dos bancos. Mas o exemplo de democracia não tem tido cobertura
    Os protestos populares, quando surgem, são para ser levados até ao fim. Quem o mostra são os islandeses, cuja acção popular sem precedentes levou à queda do governo conservador, à pressão por alterações à Constituição (já encaminhadas) e à ida às urnas em massa para chumbar o resgate dos bancos.
    Desde a eclosão da crise, em 2008, os países europeus tentam desesperadamente encontrar soluções económicas para sair da recessão. A nacionalização de bancos privados que abriram bancarrota assim que os grandes bancos privados de investimento nos EUA (como o Lehman Brothers) entraram em colapso é um sonho que muitos europeus não se atrevem a ter. A Islândia não só o teve como o levou mais longe.
    Assim que a banca entrou em incumprimento, o governo islandês decidiu nacionalizar os seus três bancos privados – Kaupthing, Landsbanki e Glitnir. Mas nem isto impediu que o país caísse na recessão. A Islândia foi à falência e o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) entrou em acção, injectando 2,1 mil milhões de dólares no país, com um acrescento de 2,5 mil milhões de dólares pelos países nórdicos. O povo revoltou-se e saiu à rua.
    Lição democrática n.º 1: Pacificamente, os islandeses começaram a concentrar-se, todos os dias, em frente ao Althingi [Parlamento] exigindo a renúncia do governo conservador de Geir H. Haarde em bloco. E conseguiram. Foram convocadas eleições antecipadas e, em Abril de 2009, foi eleita uma coligação formada pela Aliança Social-Democrata e o Movimento Esquerda Verde – chefiada por Johanna Sigurdardottir, actual primeira-ministra.

    (...)

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  2. Durante esse ano, a economia manteve-se em situação precária, fechando o ano com uma queda de 7%. Porém, no terceiro trimestre de 2010 o país saiu da recessão – com o PIB real a registar, entre Julho e Setembro, um crescimento de 1,2%, comparado com o trimestre anterior. Mas os problemas continuaram.


    Lição democrática n.º 2: Os clientes dos bancos privados islandeses eram sobretudo estrangeiros – na sua maioria dos EUA e do Reino Unido – e o Landsbanki o que acumulava a maior dívida dos três. Com o colapso do Landsbanki, os governos britânico e holandês entraram em acção, indemnizando os seus cidadãos com 5 mil milhões de dólares [cerca de 3,5 mil milhões de euros] e planeando a cobrança desses valores à Islândia.
    Algum do dinheiro para pagar essa dívida virá directamente do Landsbanki, que está neste momento a vender os seus bens. Porém, o relatório de uma empresa de consultoria privada mostra que isso apenas cobrirá entre 200 mil e 2 mil milhões de dólares. O resto teria de ser pago pela Islândia, agora detentora do banco. Só que, mais uma vez, o povo saiu à rua. Os governos da Islândia, da Holanda e do Reino Unido tinham acordado que seria o governo a desembolsar o valor total das indemnizações – que corresponde a 6 mil dólares por cada um dos 320 mil habitantes do país, a ser pago mensalmente por cada família a 15 anos, com juros de 5,5%. A 16 de Fevereiro, o Parlamento aprovou a lei e fez renascer a revolta popular. Depois de vários dias em protesto na capital, Reiquiavique, o presidente islandês, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, recusou aprovar a lei e marcou novo referendo para 9 de Abril.

    Lição democrática n.º 3:

    As últimas sondagens mostram que as intenções de votar contra a lei aumentam de dia para dia, com entre 52% e 63% da população a declarar que vai rejeitar a lei n.o 13/2011. Enquanto o país se prepara para mais um exercício de verdadeira democracia, os responsáveis pelas dívidas que entalaram a Islândia começam a ser responsabilizados – muito à conta da pressão popular sobre o novo governo de coligação, que parece o único do mundo disposto a investigar estes crimes sem rosto (até agora).
    Na semana passada, a Interpol abriu uma caça a Sigurdur Einarsson, ex-presidente-executivo do Kaupthing. Einarsson é suspeito de fraude e de falsificação de documentos e, segundo a imprensa islandesa, terá dito ao procurador-geral do país que está disposto a regressar à Islândia para ajudar nas investigações se lhe for prometido que não é preso.
    Para as mudanças constitucionais, outra vitória popular: a coligação aceitou criar uma assembleia de 25 islandeses sem filiação partidária, eleitos entre 500 advogados, estudantes, jornalistas, agricultores, representantes sindicais, etc. A nova Constituição será inspirada na da Dinamarca e, entre outras coisas, incluirá um novo projecto de lei, o Initiative Media – que visa tornar o país porto seguro para jornalistas de investigação e de fontes e criar, entre outras coisas, provedores de internet. É a lição número 4 ao mundo, de uma lista que não parece dar tréguas:


    é que toda a revolução islandesa está a passar despercebida nos media internacionais.


    http://www.ionline.pt/conteudo/113267-islandia-o-povo-e-quem-mais-ordena-e-ja-tirou-o-pais-da-recessao

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  3. Dez notas sobre o Problema Português

    Publicado por Andre Barata a 13:03 em Política Nacional

    http://www.sedes.pt/blog/?p=3327

    Entre os países representados no gráfico temos o mais baixo nível de confiança interpessoal e o terceiro maior nível de desigualdade de rendimento.
    Assim, o nosso regime não é sustentável.
    A baixa confiança interpessoal pressiona o regime a evoluir na direcção de uma cultura política autoritária e subordinada. Trocaremos a confiança pela lealdade, e a vontade de um projecto colectivo para o país por uma vontade de líderes que nos guiem ou nos dêem a segurança que vai faltando. Desfeita a confiança comum já nada suporta o interesse comum. A república evoluirá em uma de duas: ou em demagogia ou em plutocracia.
    não basta que pensemos em garantir a confiança dos investidores, não basta garantir o melhor funcionamento da justiça, protestar contra a instabilidade do quadro fiscal e contra a gestão perdulária dos recursos públicos. Tudo isto é muito importante, mas só será decisivo sob um empenhado e bem sucedido esforço de redução da desigualdade de rendimento.

    O problema económico português só é um problema de produtividade à luz do problema da desigualdade de rendimento.
    É um equívoco inaceitável afirmar-se que os portugueses não produzem para o que consomem
    sem, junto, se afirmar que os portugueses são um conjunto de pessoas que partilham a mesma nacionalidade e o direito a se intitularem “portugueses” mas que não partilham os seus rendimentos de forma equilibrada.
    (…)

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  4. Já para não falar da subida de impostos. Não vejo keynesianismo nisso, mas quem anda à volta da politiquice portuguesa dá-lhe jeito falar de uns quantos jargões para justificar a remuneração pelo servicinho

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  5. João Carlos Graça2 de abril de 2011 às 01:12

    Caro Nuno
    Permita-me um comentário mais de "economia política" do que de economics.
    Já por alturas da queda do António Guterres houve, se bem me lembro, um agravar momentâneo da situação orçamental, o qual ficou de facto a dever-se menos a aumento das despesas do que a redução das receitas fiscais...
    E já nessa altura ficou esboçada esta, digamos, "cassete neoliberal" que depois abriu de facto o caminho aos governos "decisionistas" - é preciso "tomar medidas", "fazer as reformas necessárias", etc. - de Durão e (com o interlúdio blasé de Santana) Sócrates.
    Donde se conclui: uma inteira década "corajosa" agrava de facto tanto as coisas que, no final dela, acabamos a ouvir... que temos de ser mais "corajosos" ainda (encore un effort, mes enfants, etc.).
    Reconheço que fui um bom bocado mais lá atrás do que era o assunto do seu post, mas, já agora, aqui lhe deixo como achega.
    Saudações cordiais.

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  6. ante tamanhas mudanças

    deste cabo muy estreitas

    levam-me a desconfianças

    leixam-me grãs suspeitas

    e levam-me as esp'ranças


    pois 300 mil islandeses

    fazem regime a rodos

    e dez contos de portugueses

    dão bodos atrás de bodos

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