Renegociar dívida antes que seja inevitável pode ser solução. Vale a pena ler o oportuno trabalho de Ana Rita Faria, até pelo pluralismo da opinião económica auscultada, de “vários quadrantes ideológicos”, como deve ser, onde se incluem os economistas José Reis e José Castro Caldas do Ladrões.
Adenda: há uma diferença de economia política entre uma reestruturação imposta pelos credores e a reestruturação liderada por uma aliança das periferias. A possibilidade desta última espevitaria a imaginação de quem comanda a des(união)...
Renegociar exige que a contraparte o esteja disposta a fazer. E ninguém os pode obrigar a isso. Portugal é um risco de exposição demasiado pequeno. A Espanha pode fazê-lo. Nós? Duvido.
ResponderEliminarSó uma pergunta: isto não foi proposto por Merkel para o novo fundo de estabilização financeira? Os outros países não se opuseram, em especial a Grécia e o Luxemburgo? Não estou a compreender.
ResponderEliminarJoão Noronha
http://www.cuartopoder.es/invitados/otra-vez-el-engano-de-los-rescates-%C2%BFahora-portugal/1294
ResponderEliminarLa realidad es que el "rescate" de Portugal, tal y como se daría allí siguiendo la línea de otros tantos anteriores (un préstamo muy cuantioso para que Portugal pague las deudas acompañado de medidas restrictivas y de recorte de derechos sociales y de gasto) no va a salvar a su economía. Es mentira que este tipo de operaciones rescaten a los países. Esto es solo un último y definitivo engaño: de lo que se trata no es de salvar o rescatar a un país sino a los bancos, principalmente, y a los grupos más ricos y poderosos, puesto que lo que se hace con el rescate es poner dinero para que ellos cobren sus deudas y obligar a que la sociedad cargue con la factura de la operación durante años.
Tan cierto es esto que resulta fácil y patético comprobar que son precisamente estos grupos financieros y las autoridades europeas que le sirven los que se empeñan en convencer a las portuguesas de que soliciten el "rescate", una buena prueba de quiénes son de verdad los que se beneficiarán de él.
Y esto pone sobre la mesa una última cuestión. Un engaño no menos importante. Quizá el peor. El que tiene que ver con el tipo de régimen político en el que vivimos y en el que los electores, los ciudadanos, no podemos decidir realmente sobre las cuestiones económicas.
Lo llaman democracia pero a la vista de lo que viene sucediendo está cada vez más claro que no lo es porque se nos ha hurtado la posibilidad de decidir sobre las cuestiones económicas que evidentemente son una parte central de las que directamente afectan a nuestra vida. Y es justamente por ello que hemos de hacer todo lo que esté en nuestras manos para tratar de cambiarlos. Eso sí que sería un verdadero rescate. Lo demás es otro robo.
Juan Torres López (www.juantorreslopez.com) es Catedrático de Economía Aplicada de la Universidad de Sevilla
Quais bancos, os espanhóis, pois...Sempre a fantasia dos bancos alemães e franceses. Temos de encontrar um mau. A banca espanhola tem um montante de dívida igual à da banca dos dois países. Se o sistema financeiro é um sistema, então o quarto poder ainda vai fechar quando Portugal entrar em incumprimento. Estão a ignorar os efeitos sobre a banca e sobre os contribuintes portugueses que a vão salvar.
ResponderEliminarJorge Rocha
Muito obrigado, Juan Torres López, acho que acertou nos pontos centrais:
ResponderEliminar1) Resolver o problema da dívida implicará renegociá-la a bem ou mal; convirá que isso seja tanto quanto possível liderado pelos próprios devedores; isso só acontecerá se estes mantiverem bem alta a ameaça de uso da "bomba atómica", isto é, de saída do euro. Embora tal facto não seja publicamente confessado, são sobretudo os credores a terem a temer com tal eventualidade. A "ajuda europeia" aos Pigs não passa, de facto, duma miserável impostura destinada a resgatar (e a resgatar muito favoravelmente) os próprios credores.
2) Como quer que seja ultrapassada a crise actual, isso deixará presente o problema que lhe esteve na origem: moeda sobrevalorizada e, como consequência, recorrentes défices comerciais. A abertura "europeia" para atacar esse outro problema não é muita nem pouca; é nula.
3) Por esta via, tocamos finalmente o cerne da questão: a estrutura em boa medida já da própria UE no seu conjunto, e sobretudo da "coisa" chamada euro, são desde a raiz uma monstruosidade anti-democrática, consagrando o empowerment de instituições de todo em todo fora do controlo dos órgãos eleitos, destinada pois a que, sob uma fachada com eleições livres, partidos, etc., se instale um universo económico que corresponde ao paraíso da "teoria da escolha pública", isto é, um universo social radicalmente livre-de-democracia!
Assim, o problema crucial pode formular-se deste modo: que vamos fazer acerca desse outro assunto de base?
«mantiverem bem a ameaça de uso da "bomba atómica", isto é, de saída do euro»
ResponderEliminarO problema desta ameaça é que não é credível, uma saída do euro seria o equivalente económico do bombista suicida.
Pessoalmente, penso que mais tarde ou mais cedo será inevitável uma reestruturação da dívda de certos países, mesmo que esteja errado acho muito interessantes as discussões sobre a forma como uma reestruturação poderia /deveria ser operacionalizada. Existe no entanto um grande problema de exequibilidade política que não vai ser fácil de ultrapassar.
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ResponderEliminar