tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4018985866499281301.post5247916259008738735..comments2024-03-28T21:19:50.901+00:00Comments on Ladrões de Bicicletas: Os testes de stressNuno teleshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07713327330820459193noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4018985866499281301.post-50458124267135496022014-10-28T11:35:45.347+00:002014-10-28T11:35:45.347+00:00Os teste de stress são uma falácia e um instrument...Os teste de stress são uma falácia e um instrumento do poder alemão que pura e simplesmente branqueou o sistema financeiro alemão.<br /><br />no FT:<br />But of course, no "German bank has the same exposure to Italian bonds as an Italian bank": don't be ridiculous. Take residential property: adverse scenario gives 2014-4.5 2015-1.8 2016+2.3 for Germany, 2014-7.9, 2015-4.7, 2016-3.3 for Italy ... and who cares that the second has yet collapsed while the first has been growing for years now. => "Scenarios are diverse for each country, because the countries are inherently very diverse" in their power to influence the EU offices: it was no Stress Test, but a Power Test. Vae victis.<br /> <br />What must be crystal clear, is that the EBA has come not with a stress test scenario, but with many stress test scenarios ... one for each country ... and very diverse the one each other. What must be crystal clear, is that the EBA has come with assumption that are amazingly more favorable to the German economy than to the Italian one. What must be crystal clear, is that, as Constâncio&Nouy talk of "the severity of the scenario in the adverse case", they're not talking Germany, as the scenario in the adverse case for Germany is everything but severe. <br />* Concerning the German commercial and residential property, Constâncio stressed how "the stress test is a scenario; it’s not a forecast", but rather a nightmare designed with the purpose of testing banks in case of Armageddon. Can Armageddon be for the German residential end commercial property to growth by 2.3 and by 1.0 in 2016 ? Of course it cannot. <br />* So what ? So the EBA has chosen, and the ECB has accepted, to run stress tests that are expansive in Germany, while particularly recessive in Italy: and I mean expansive and recessive in monetary terms, as banks serve as the main component of the transmission mechanism<br /><br />Is that serious ? Is that sound ? I believe it's demented. But, even if the opposite was true and imposing further recession in Italy was wise, it remains that the ECB process has not been as tough as the widely-feared stress tests carried out by the US Federal Reserve.Daniel Piresnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4018985866499281301.post-47483439832240621452014-10-28T01:40:23.210+00:002014-10-28T01:40:23.210+00:00Para alguns vale quase tudo...
Desde que seja ten...Para alguns vale quase tudo...<br /><br />Desde que seja tentar tapar o cheiro que a "trampa" da banca privada exala <br /><br />A" sensibilidade social" levada em forma de gozo é todo um programa.No fundo equivalente ao convite à emigração do relvas ou ao "piegas" com que coelho enche a boca.Ou ao "aguentam,aguentam" dum da igualha destes<br /><br />Mas o mundo gira. E nem a insensibilidade dos trafulhas que nos governam ficará impune, nem as coisas ficarão apenas em "sensibilidades".<br /><br />Para desgosto dos neoliberais pesporrentos da nossa praça<br /><br />DeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4018985866499281301.post-51345356865550088862014-10-27T23:11:51.023+00:002014-10-27T23:11:51.023+00:00Tudo gravíssimos problemas a serem prontamente res...Tudo gravíssimos problemas a serem prontamente resolvidos com as já anunciadas doses de uma 'nova esperamça' associada a uma muito elevada 'sensibilidade social'.Josehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17089003849614254348noreply@blogger.com